In a significant shift from tradition, the fantasy realm has decided to abandon dragon jousting as a means of selecting its leaders, opting instead for a democratic process. The contenders in this historic election are a giant orange troll and a seasoned tree statesman. The Dormor Polling Agency, under the watchful eye of an all-powerful eyebrow, has been tasked with predicting the election outcome. The stakes are high, as an incorrect prediction could have dire consequences.
Your mission is to conduct door-to-door surveys, asking citizens whether they support the troll or the tree statesman. While most citizens are eager to help, a significant challenge arises: many are reluctant to admit their support for the troll due to his controversial past. This reluctance could skew the polling results, as troll supporters might falsely claim allegiance to the tree statesman.
Just as you are about to begin your polling rounds, a mysterious stranger offers a piece of cryptic advice: “What have you got in your pocket?” Upon checking, you find a silver coin with the king’s head on one side and his tail on the other. This coin becomes the key to conducting an accurate poll by introducing an element of randomness that allows troll supporters to maintain deniability.
The solution involves asking each respondent to flip the coin in private. If it lands on heads, they should report support for the troll, regardless of their true preference. If it lands on tails, they should state their actual choice. This method ensures that when someone claims to support the troll, it could be due to the coin flip or genuine support, making it impossible to distinguish between the two.
After polling 200 voters, 130 indicate support for the troll. Given that the coin would land on heads about 50% of the time, or for 100 respondents, you can subtract these from the troll’s total. This adjustment reveals that the troll’s actual support is likely around 30 out of 100, suggesting a probable loss.
As the election approaches, a dramatic twist occurs: a third-party candidate enters the race, eliminating the tree statesman. According to the flawed constitution, this newcomer takes the tree statesman’s place in the election. The Dormor Polling Agency must now reassess the situation using the trusty coin, but with a new challenge: no one is comfortable admitting their preference for either the troll or the dragon who has entered the race.
To address this, a new strategy is devised. Each respondent flips the coin twice, resulting in four possible outcomes. Those who flip heads twice report support for the troll, tails twice for the dragon, and any other combination allows them to express their true preference. This method accounts for 25% of respondents being influenced by the coin for each candidate.
In this round, 105 voters express support for the troll, and 95 for the dragon. Subtracting the 50 respondents influenced by the coin from each total reveals a preference for the troll by a margin of 55 to 45. As predicted, the troll wins the election, and the polling agency’s accuracy ensures its continued operation.
The transition to democracy in the fantasy realm presents unique challenges, but with innovative polling techniques, accurate predictions are possible. The use of randomness and strategic questioning allows for a more truthful representation of voter preferences, ensuring the integrity of the democratic process.
Imagine you are a citizen of the fantasy realm. Create a character profile for yourself, including your background, your views on the candidates, and your reasons for supporting one over the other. Then, participate in a mock election where you and your classmates use the coin flip method to cast your votes. Discuss how this method helps ensure anonymity and accuracy in polling.
Using the data provided in the article, calculate the actual support for each candidate in both polling scenarios. First, determine the troll’s support in the initial poll of 200 voters. Then, calculate the support for the troll and the dragon in the second poll. Present your findings in a clear and organized manner, showing all your work.
Form groups and assign each group a candidate (the troll, the tree statesman, or the dragon). Research and develop arguments for why your candidate should be elected. Hold a debate in class, presenting your candidate’s strengths and addressing any controversies. This will help you understand the importance of informed decision-making in a democracy.
Design a campaign poster for one of the candidates. Use persuasive language and creative visuals to highlight your candidate’s qualities and promises. Display your posters around the classroom and discuss how visual media can influence voter opinions and the democratic process.
Work in small groups to simulate the Dormor Polling Agency. Develop a plan for conducting a poll in your school, using the coin flip method to ensure anonymity. Collect and analyze the data, then present your findings to the class. Reflect on the challenges and successes of your polling process.
Democracy – A system of government where the people have the power to make decisions, usually through voting. – In a democracy, every citizen has the right to vote for their leaders.
Polling – The process of asking people their opinions to find out what they think about certain issues or candidates. – The polling showed that most students wanted a longer lunch break.
Election – A formal decision-making process where citizens choose their representatives or decide on specific issues. – The school held an election to choose the student council members.
Support – To agree with or help someone or something, especially in a political context. – Many people came out to support their favorite candidates during the campaign.
Citizens – Members of a country who have rights and responsibilities, including the right to vote. – Citizens have the duty to participate in elections and voice their opinions.
Strategy – A plan of action designed to achieve a specific goal, often used in politics and campaigns. – The candidate developed a strategy to reach more voters in the community.
Coin – A piece of metal used as money, often representing a value in political discussions about economics. – The debate about whether to use coins or paper money is important for the economy.
Candidates – Individuals who run for office in an election, hoping to be chosen by voters. – The candidates for the mayoral election presented their ideas to the public.
Preferences – The choices or likes of individuals, especially regarding political issues or candidates. – Voters expressed their preferences during the town hall meeting.
Outcomes – The results or effects of an election or decision-making process. – The outcomes of the election will determine the future policies of the city.
