ClassX Video Lessons How can you change someone’s mind? (hint: facts aren’t always enough) – Hugo Mercier
Imagine you’re at a dinner party with three people: Paul, who is married, is looking at Linda. Linda, in turn, is looking at John, who is not married. The question is: Is a married person looking at an unmarried person? Take a moment to think about it. Most people initially say there’s not enough information to decide, but that’s not correct. Linda is either married or not married—there are no other possibilities. In both scenarios, a married person is looking at an unmarried person. Once this explanation is given, most people change their minds and accept the correct answer, even if they were confident in their initial response.
Now, let’s consider a different situation. A study from 2005 explored American opinions on the reasons for the Iraq War. Participants were shown a news article stating that no weapons of mass destruction had been found. Surprisingly, many participants continued to believe that such weapons had been found, and some even became more convinced of their original belief.
Why do some arguments change minds while others reinforce existing beliefs? Arguments are more persuasive when they are tailored to the audience’s beliefs, trusted sources, and values. Logical puzzles, like the dinner party scenario, work because they start from a common set of beliefs, even if people initially reach different conclusions.
In 1931, mathematician Kurt Gödel presented a proof showing that a logically complete system of mathematics was impossible. Despite challenging established mathematical thought, his proof was accepted because it was based on axioms that everyone in the field agreed upon. However, many disagreements involve differing beliefs that can’t be resolved through logic alone. When these disagreements involve external information, the key often lies in which sources and authorities people trust.
Consider a study where participants were asked to estimate statistics related to climate change. They were asked questions like, “How many of the years between 1995 and 2006 were among the hottest 12 years since 1850?” After giving their answers, they were shown data from a trusted source indicating that 11 of those 12 years were among the hottest. Reliable statistics from an authoritative source made participants more likely to accept the reality of global warming.
For disagreements that can’t be resolved with statistics or evidence, persuasive arguments may need to engage the audience’s values. Researchers have studied how people with different political views rank their values. For example, liberals often prioritize fairness—ensuring everyone is treated equally—over loyalty. In attempts to persuade liberals to support military spending, arguments emphasizing fairness—such as the military providing jobs and education to disadvantaged people—were more effective than those emphasizing loyalty, like the military unifying the nation.
These three elements—beliefs, trusted sources, and values—might seem like a straightforward formula for reaching agreement. However, the challenge lies in our tendency to base arguments on our own beliefs, trusted sources, and values. Even when we try not to, it can be difficult to accurately identify what matters to those who disagree with us. The best way to understand others is through conversation. Engaging in dialogue exposes you to counterarguments and rebuttals, helping you refine your arguments and reasoning. Sometimes, you might even find yourself changing your mind.
Engage in a structured debate with your classmates on a controversial topic. Assume roles that may not align with your personal beliefs to understand different perspectives. This will help you practice tailoring arguments to your audience’s beliefs and values.
Work in groups to solve logical puzzles similar to the dinner party scenario. Discuss your initial thoughts and how your conclusions change after the explanation. This activity will enhance your critical thinking and demonstrate how common beliefs can lead to different conclusions.
Research a current event and identify different sources reporting on it. Evaluate the credibility of each source and discuss how trust in these sources influences your perception of the event. This will help you understand the role of trusted sources in shaping beliefs.
Create a persuasive presentation on a topic of your choice, focusing on engaging the audience’s values. Present your argument to the class and receive feedback on how effectively you connected with their values. This will improve your ability to craft arguments that resonate with diverse audiences.
Participate in a guided conversation with peers who hold different viewpoints. Reflect on the dialogue and write a short essay on how the conversation influenced your understanding of the topic. This will help you appreciate the importance of conversation in changing minds and finding common ground.
Here’s a sanitized version of the provided YouTube transcript:
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Three people are at a dinner party: Paul, who is married, is looking at Linda. Meanwhile, Linda is looking at John, who is not married. Is someone who is married looking at someone who is not married? Take a moment to think about it. Most people answer that there’s not enough information to tell, and many are incorrect. Linda must be either married or not married—there are no other options. So in either scenario, someone married is looking at someone who’s not married. When presented with the explanation, most people change their minds and accept the correct answer, despite being very confident in their initial responses.
Now let’s look at another case. A 2005 study examined American attitudes regarding the justifications for the Iraq War. Researchers presented participants with a news article that showed no weapons of mass destruction had been found. Yet many participants not only continued to believe that weapons had been found, but they even became more convinced of their original views.
So why do arguments change people’s minds in some cases and backfire in others? Arguments are more convincing when they are based on a good understanding of the audience, taking into account what the audience believes, who they trust, and what they value. Mathematical and logical arguments, like the dinner party brainteaser, work because even when people reach different conclusions, they’re starting from the same set of shared beliefs.
In 1931, a young mathematician named Kurt Gödel presented a proof that a logically complete system of mathematics was impossible. Despite challenging decades of work by prominent mathematicians, the proof was accepted because it relied on axioms that everyone in the field already agreed on. Of course, many disagreements involve different beliefs that can’t simply be reconciled through logic. When these beliefs involve outside information, the issue often comes down to what sources and authorities people trust.
One study asked people to estimate several statistics related to climate change. Participants were asked questions, such as “how many of the years between 1995 and 2006 were among the hottest 12 years since 1850?” After providing their answers, they were presented with data from a trusted source, showing that the answer was 11 of the 12 years. Being provided with reliable statistics from an authoritative source made people more likely to accept the reality that the earth is warming.
Finally, for disagreements that can’t be definitively settled with statistics or evidence, making a convincing argument may depend on engaging the audience’s values. For example, researchers have conducted studies where they asked people of different political backgrounds to rank their values. In these studies, participants who identified as liberal tended to rank fairness—meaning whether everyone is treated equally—above loyalty. Later studies attempted to convince liberals to support military spending with various arguments. Arguments based on fairness—such as the military providing employment and education to people from disadvantaged backgrounds—were more convincing than arguments based on loyalty—such as the military unifying a nation.
These three elements—beliefs, trusted sources, and values—may seem like a simple formula for finding agreement and consensus. The challenge is that our initial inclination is to think of arguments that rely on our own beliefs, trusted sources, and values. Even when we don’t, it can be difficult to accurately identify what is important to those who don’t already agree with us. The best way to find out is simply to engage in conversation. Through discussion, you’ll be exposed to counterarguments and rebuttals. These can help you make your own arguments and reasoning more convincing, and sometimes, you may even find yourself changing your mind.
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This version maintains the core ideas while ensuring clarity and neutrality.
Arguments – Statements or reasons put forward to support or oppose a point of view, often used in critical thinking to evaluate the validity of a claim. – In her psychology class, Maria learned how to construct strong arguments to effectively support her thesis on cognitive biases.
Beliefs – Convictions or acceptances that certain things are true or real, often influencing behavior and decision-making processes. – The study explored how personal beliefs about intelligence can impact students’ motivation and academic performance.
Values – Principles or standards of behavior that are considered important in life, guiding individuals’ judgments and actions. – The research highlighted how cultural values shape individuals’ responses to ethical dilemmas in organizational settings.
Psychology – The scientific study of the mind and behavior, encompassing various aspects such as cognition, emotion, and social interactions. – In her psychology course, Sarah examined the impact of social media on adolescent mental health.
Reasoning – The process of thinking about something in a logical way in order to form a conclusion or judgment. – Critical thinking exercises in the seminar helped students improve their reasoning skills by analyzing complex case studies.
Statistics – The practice or science of collecting and analyzing numerical data in large quantities, often used to infer proportions in a whole from those in a representative sample. – Understanding statistics is crucial for psychology students to interpret research findings accurately.
Persuasion – The act of convincing someone to do or believe something through reasoning or the use of temptation. – The lecture on persuasion techniques revealed how advertisers use psychological principles to influence consumer behavior.
Dialogue – A conversation between two or more people, often used as a tool for exploring different perspectives and fostering understanding. – Engaging in open dialogue with peers allowed students to challenge their assumptions and broaden their viewpoints.
Trust – The firm belief in the reliability, truth, or ability of someone or something, often considered essential in building effective relationships. – The experiment demonstrated how trust between team members can enhance collaborative problem-solving.
Change – The process of becoming different, often involving adaptation and transformation in response to new information or experiences. – The course on organizational psychology examined how leaders can effectively manage change within their teams.
