How to track a tornado – Karen Kosiba

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In this lesson, Karen Kosiba shares her journey into tornado research, highlighting her involvement in the VORTEX2 project aimed at understanding tornado formation and surface wind patterns. She discusses the complexities of forecasting tornadoes, the significance of the rear-flank downdraft in tornado-producing storms, and the challenges of collecting data during tornado events. Through observational research and advanced modeling techniques, Kosiba emphasizes the importance of combining field data with simulations to enhance our understanding of tornadoes and their life cycles.

How to Track a Tornado – Insights from Karen Kosiba

When discussing tornadoes, it’s often captivating to start with a striking image of one. Although my first encounter with a tornado wasn’t captured in the most impressive photograph, it was a pivotal moment that sparked my passion for studying these fascinating yet terrifying natural phenomena. This experience set me on a path to explore tornadoes more deeply.

The Journey into Tornado Research

Years later, I became involved in a significant field project known as VORTEX2. Alongside a team of scientists, we embarked on a mission to study tornadoes using a variety of instruments. Our primary goal was to unravel the mystery of how tornadoes form—a question that, despite its apparent simplicity, remains a complex scientific challenge. We also aimed to understand wind patterns near the Earth’s surface, as most of our existing data pertains to winds above building level, leaving a gap in our knowledge about surface winds and their interaction with higher altitudes.

Understanding Supercell Thunderstorms

Most tornadoes originate from supercell thunderstorms, which are large, rotating storms commonly found in the central United States. However, the presence of rotation in these storms does not necessarily mean that rotation occurs at the surface. Analyzing these storms often reveals similarities, complicating our ability to forecast or issue warnings for tornadoes. Our objective is to warn only about storms that are likely to produce tornadoes.

The Role of the Rear-Flank Downdraft

One critical factor that may distinguish tornado-producing storms is the rear-flank downdraft. This downdraft wraps around the rear edge of large rotating thunderstorms. We hypothesize that the temperature and buoyancy of this air, along with the strength of the updraft it interacts with, significantly influence tornado formation. There are many other factors involved, which we continue to explore.

Challenges in Measuring Tornadoes

Once a tornado occurs, obtaining measurements near the surface presents significant challenges. Understandably, most people are hesitant to drive into tornadoes, although some may have seen exceptions on television. Even placing instruments in a tornado’s path is tricky due to the extreme winds. Gathering critical data from these locations is essential to determine if the winds observed above ground level correspond to those at the surface.

Observational Research and Mobile Radars

To address these questions, I focus on observational research, collecting data on tornadoes. I collaborate with a team that operates mobile radars—radar systems mounted on large trucks that we drive close to tornadoes to map wind patterns and precipitation. This helps us understand the processes occurring within these storms.

Modeling and Simulations

In addition to field observations, we conduct extensive modeling and simulations. Since the atmosphere operates according to the laws of physics, modeling these laws allows us to predict tornado paths and wind strengths without always needing to be in the field. However, combining observations with modeling is crucial for advancing our understanding of tornadoes.

Capturing the Life Cycle of a Tornado

In one of our studies, we captured a storm’s evolution from a non-tornado state to tornado formation, intensification, and eventual dissipation. This dataset provides a rare opportunity to study a tornado’s entire life cycle. We believe the rear-flank downdraft plays a vital role in organizing the rotation necessary for tornado formation, particularly near the ground.

Surprising Findings on Surface Winds

Our research has revealed that surface winds are comparable to those observed 30 to 40 meters above ground level. This was surprising, as we had assumed that wind speeds would decrease significantly near the surface.

Conclusion and Future Prospects

In conclusion, while the image of the last tornado I observed may not be the most dramatic, it was captured with one of our mobile radars. This technology allows us to observe tornadoes up close and understand their inner workings. For those who frequently view tornado images, you can see the rain spiraling and the debris cloud associated with the tornado.

I am excited about future advancements in technology that will enhance our understanding of these storms as we continue to learn more about tornado formation. Thank you for your interest in this fascinating field.

(Applause)

  1. Reflecting on Karen Kosiba’s journey into tornado research, what personal experiences or interests have influenced your career path or academic pursuits?
  2. Considering the challenges faced in measuring tornadoes, what innovative solutions or technologies do you think could improve data collection in extreme weather conditions?
  3. How does the concept of the rear-flank downdraft change your understanding of tornado formation, and what other factors do you think might play a role in this process?
  4. Discuss the importance of combining observational research with modeling and simulations in scientific studies. How can this approach be applied to other fields of research?
  5. What are your thoughts on the surprising findings regarding surface winds being comparable to those observed above ground level? How might this influence future research or safety measures?
  6. In what ways do you think advancements in mobile radar technology could impact our ability to predict and respond to tornadoes in the future?
  7. Reflect on a time when you had to overcome significant challenges in a project or research. How did you address these challenges, and what did you learn from the experience?
  8. Considering the article’s insights, what questions or areas of tornado research do you find most intriguing, and why?
  1. Activity: Tornado Simulation Workshop

    Engage in a hands-on workshop where you will create a simple tornado simulation using household materials. This activity will help you visualize the dynamics of tornado formation and understand the role of different atmospheric conditions. Discuss your observations and relate them to the concepts of supercell thunderstorms and rear-flank downdrafts.

  2. Activity: Mobile Radar Data Analysis

    Work with real data collected from mobile radars during tornado events. Analyze wind patterns and precipitation data to identify key features of tornado-producing storms. This activity will enhance your data analysis skills and deepen your understanding of observational research in meteorology.

  3. Activity: Tornado Path Prediction Challenge

    Using modeling and simulation software, predict the path and intensity of a hypothetical tornado. Collaborate with peers to compare predictions and discuss the factors influencing tornado behavior. This activity will help you apply theoretical knowledge to practical scenarios and appreciate the complexity of atmospheric modeling.

  4. Activity: Case Study Discussion – VORTEX2 Project

    Participate in a group discussion focused on the VORTEX2 project. Review the project’s objectives, methodologies, and findings. Discuss the challenges faced in measuring tornadoes and the significance of the rear-flank downdraft in tornado formation. This activity will enhance your critical thinking and collaborative skills.

  5. Activity: Interactive Seminar on Tornado Safety and Preparedness

    Attend an interactive seminar where you will learn about tornado safety measures and preparedness strategies. Engage in role-playing scenarios to practice decision-making during tornado warnings. This activity will provide practical knowledge and skills to ensure safety in tornado-prone areas.

Sure! Here’s a sanitized version of the transcript:

I believe that all good tornado discussions should begin with an impressive tornado image. However, this is not that impressive shot. This was the first tornado I ever witnessed; it was both fascinating and frightening. I’m sharing it because it inspired my journey into this field. Although it’s not a great photograph, being out there for the first time was an incredible experience.

Now, I’m capturing real tornado footage. Fast forward a few years to a field project called VORTEX2, where I, along with several other scientists, studied tornadoes using various instruments to understand how they form. This is a fundamental question we are still trying to answer. It may seem basic, but it remains a complex challenge. We are also working to understand wind patterns near the surface. While we have data on winds above building level, we lack information about surface winds and their relationship to higher altitudes.

Most tornadoes originate from supercell thunderstorms, which are large, rotating storms commonly found in the central United States. However, just because these storms are rotating above does not mean they are rotating at the surface. When we analyze these storms and their data, they often appear similar, which complicates our ability to forecast or issue warnings for tornadoes. We aim to warn only about storms that are likely to produce tornadoes.

One critical factor we believe distinguishes these storms is the rear-flank downdraft. These large rotating thunderstorms have a downdraft that wraps around their rear edge. We think that the temperature and buoyancy of this air, along with the strength of the updraft it interacts with, significantly influence whether a tornado will form. There are many other factors involved, which I will explain shortly.

Once a tornado occurs, we face challenges in obtaining measurements near the surface. Most people are understandably hesitant to drive into tornadoes, although some may have seen exceptions on television. Even placing instruments in a tornado’s path is tricky, as the winds around a tornado can be extremely strong. Gathering critical data from these locations is essential because we need to determine if the winds observed above ground level correspond to those at the surface.

To address these questions, I focus on observational research; I enjoy collecting data on tornadoes. I collaborate with a team that operates mobile radars—essentially radar systems mounted on large trucks that we drive close to tornadoes to map wind patterns and precipitation. This helps us understand the processes occurring within these storms.

The image you see here illustrates what a tornado looks like when viewed with mobile radar from a close distance. We also conduct extensive modeling and simulations since the atmosphere operates according to the laws of physics. By modeling these laws, we can predict tornado paths and wind strengths without always needing to be in the field. However, combining observations with modeling is crucial for advancing our understanding of tornadoes.

Earlier, I showed you a quick video. This is what we observe using radar. The exciting aspect of this data is that we captured the storm’s evolution from a non-tornado state to tornado formation, intensification, and eventual dissipation. This dataset is one of the rare opportunities we have to study a tornado’s entire life cycle.

We believe the rear-flank downdraft plays a vital role in organizing the rotation necessary for tornado formation. The atmospheric spin must be oriented vertically, particularly near the ground. We think that the rear-flank downdraft pulses, which are critical for converging rotation and positioning it correctly.

Additionally, we have gathered valuable measurements close to tornado paths and found that surface winds are comparable to those observed 30 to 40 meters above ground level. This was surprising, as we had assumed that wind speeds would decrease significantly near the surface.

To conclude, this image is not of the last tornado I ever saw, but I appreciate it because it was captured with one of our mobile radars. This tornado, distinct from a hurricane, shows what it looks like up close. It’s remarkable that we can use technology to observe these storms and understand their inner workings. For those who frequently view tornado images, you can see the rain spiraling and the debris cloud associated with the tornado.

I look forward to future advancements in technology that will enhance our understanding of these storms, as we continue to learn more about tornado formation. Thank you.

(Applause)

This version maintains the content while removing any informal language and ensuring clarity.

TornadoesViolently rotating columns of air extending from a thunderstorm to the ground, capable of causing significant damage. – Tornadoes are often studied to understand their formation and improve warning systems.

ResearchThe systematic investigation into and study of materials and sources in order to establish facts and reach new conclusions. – Research in atmospheric physics often involves analyzing data from weather satellites.

WindsNatural movements of air, especially in the form of a current of air blowing from a particular direction. – The study of winds is crucial for understanding weather patterns and climate change.

StormsDisturbances in the atmosphere marked by wind and usually by rain, snow, hail, sleet, or thunder and lightning. – Severe storms can lead to the development of tornadoes and other extreme weather phenomena.

SupercellA highly organized type of thunderstorm characterized by the presence of a deep, persistently rotating updraft. – Supercells are often responsible for producing severe weather, including large hail and tornadoes.

DowndraftA downward current or draft of air, often found in thunderstorms and contributing to severe weather conditions. – The downdraft in a thunderstorm can lead to strong surface winds and heavy precipitation.

ModelingThe use of mathematical equations and simulations to represent and study the behavior of complex systems. – Climate modeling helps scientists predict future changes in Earth’s climate based on various scenarios.

ObservationsThe action or process of closely monitoring something or someone in order to gain information. – Meteorological observations are essential for accurate weather forecasting and analysis.

FormationThe process by which something is formed or takes shape, particularly in the context of natural phenomena. – The formation of hurricanes is influenced by sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions.

DataFacts and statistics collected together for reference or analysis, often used in scientific research. – Analyzing climate data over several decades can reveal trends in global temperature changes.

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