In January 1995, a tense moment unfolded when Russia detected what seemed to be a nuclear missile heading its way. The alert reached the Russian president, who was on the verge of deciding a response when another system contradicted the initial warning. It turned out to be a false alarm—a research rocket studying the Northern Lights, not a missile. This incident, occurring after the Cold War, was one of the closest instances where the world almost faced a nuclear conflict.
The invention of the atomic bomb marked a turning point in human history, giving us the unprecedented power to cause massive destruction. Since then, the risk of existential threats—those that could lead to human extinction or the irreversible collapse of civilization—has grown. To mitigate these risks, we must first identify and understand the activities that pose such threats now and in the future.
Humanity has survived for 20,000 centuries, each with its own risks of extinction from natural events like asteroid impacts and supervolcanoes. Assessing these existential risks is challenging because we rely on historical data, and complete human destruction has never occurred. Experts estimate the risk from natural threats to be about 1 in 10,000 per century.
Nuclear weapons were the first significant man-made addition to existential risks. The danger lies in the potential for a global nuclear war, which could trigger a nuclear winter. This scenario involves soot from burning cities blocking sunlight for years, leading to widespread crop failures. Although we haven’t experienced a nuclear war, it’s uncertain whether this is due to its inherent unlikelihood or sheer luck.
Climate change is another major existential risk. While it may not directly lead to extinction, it could cause severe disruptions, making humanity more vulnerable to other threats. Although we anticipate a few degrees Celsius of warming, extreme scenarios of 6 to 10 degrees cannot be entirely ruled out, potentially leading to unprecedented disasters.
Emerging technologies, particularly in biotechnology and artificial intelligence, present significant risks. Engineered pandemics, for instance, could be far deadlier than natural ones due to advances in biotechnology. These pathogens could emerge from biowarfare or research accidents, and the decreasing costs of genome sequencing and modification increase the number of individuals capable of creating such threats.
Unaligned artificial intelligence (AI) is another concern. Many researchers believe that AI surpassing human abilities could emerge this century. If we lose control, these systems could dictate our future. Even if designed with good intentions, superintelligent AI could pose an existential risk if not perfectly aligned with human values—a complex challenge for scientists.
Experts estimate that anthropogenic existential risks are over 100 times higher than natural risks. However, these odds depend heavily on human choices. Since most risks stem from human actions, we have the power to mitigate them. By prioritizing the safeguarding of humanity’s future, we can reduce these risks. Ultimately, the potential for humanity to thrive lies in our hands.
Engage in a structured debate with your peers on the topic of nuclear disarmament. Consider the historical context of nuclear weapons, their role in global security, and the potential risks they pose. Use evidence from the article to support your arguments and explore the feasibility and implications of a nuclear-free world.
Participate in a simulation exercise where you role-play as world leaders responding to a global crisis, such as a nuclear threat or a climate emergency. This activity will help you understand the complexities of decision-making under pressure and the importance of international cooperation in mitigating existential risks.
Conduct a research project focusing on the potential risks and benefits of emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and biotechnology. Present your findings to the class, highlighting how these technologies could pose existential threats and what measures can be taken to ensure their safe development and use.
Analyze a case study of a historical existential threat, such as the Cuban Missile Crisis or the near-miss nuclear incident in 1995. Discuss the factors that contributed to the threat and how it was averted. Reflect on the lessons learned and how they can be applied to current and future risks.
Participate in a workshop focused on developing innovative solutions to combat climate change. Collaborate with your peers to design strategies that address both mitigation and adaptation. Present your proposals and discuss how they can reduce the vulnerability of humanity to climate-related existential risks.
In January 1995, Russia detected a nuclear missile headed its way. The alert reached the president, who was considering a response when another system contradicted the initial warning. What was thought to be the first missile in a massive attack was actually a research rocket studying the Northern Lights. This incident occurred after the Cold War but was one of the closest calls to igniting a global nuclear conflict.
With the invention of the atomic bomb, humanity gained the power to cause significant destruction for the first time in history. Since then, the risk of existential threats—either extinction or the irreversible collapse of human civilization—has steadily increased. It is within our power to reduce this risk, but we must first understand which of our activities pose existential threats now and which might in the future.
So far, our species has survived 20,000 centuries, each with some extinction risk from natural causes, such as asteroid impacts and supervolcanoes. Assessing existential risk is inherently uncertain because we typically rely on historical data to determine likelihoods. However, the complete destruction of humanity has never occurred before. While there is no perfect method to assess our risk from natural threats, experts estimate it to be about 1 in 10,000 per century.
Nuclear weapons were our first addition to that baseline. While there are many risks associated with nuclear weapons, the existential risk arises from the possibility of a global nuclear war leading to a nuclear winter, where soot from burning cities blocks out sunlight for years, causing crop failures. We have not experienced a nuclear war yet, but our limited history makes it difficult to determine if such an event is inherently unlikely or if we have simply been fortunate.
The next major addition to our existential risk is climate change. Like nuclear war, climate change could lead to numerous severe scenarios that we should work hard to avoid, but that may not necessarily result in extinction or irreversible collapse. While we expect a few degrees Celsius of warming, we cannot completely rule out scenarios of 6 or even 10 degrees, which could lead to unprecedented calamities. Even in the worst-case scenarios, it is unclear whether warming would pose a direct existential risk, but the resulting disruptions would likely make us more vulnerable to other existential threats.
Emerging technologies may present some of the greatest risks. Engineered pandemics, for example, have historically caused significant catastrophes. Advances in biotechnology enable the modification and creation of germs that could be far deadlier than naturally occurring ones. Such pathogens could arise from biowarfare or research accidents, and the decreasing costs of genome sequencing and modification, along with the increased availability of potentially dangerous information, raise concerns about the number of individuals and groups capable of creating such threats.
Another concern is unaligned artificial intelligence (AI). Many researchers believe this century will see the development of AI that surpasses human abilities across various domains. If we relinquish control, we may place our future in the hands of the systems we create. Even if designed with humanity’s best interests in mind, superintelligent AI could pose an existential risk if it is not perfectly aligned with human values—a challenge that scientists are finding extremely difficult to navigate.
Based on current knowledge, some experts estimate that the anthropogenic existential risk is more than 100 times higher than the background rate of natural risk. However, these odds heavily depend on human choices. Since most of the risk stems from human actions, it is within our control to mitigate it. If we prioritize safeguarding humanity’s future as the defining issue of our time, we can reduce this risk. Ultimately, whether humanity fulfills its potential is in our hands.
Nuclear – Relating to the nucleus of an atom, especially in the context of energy production or weapons. – The development of nuclear energy has significantly impacted global power dynamics since the mid-20th century.
Bomb – A weapon designed to explode and cause destruction, often used in warfare. – The dropping of the atomic bomb on Hiroshima marked a pivotal moment in World War II history.
Threats – Potential sources of danger or harm, often used in the context of security or environmental issues. – The Cold War era was characterized by nuclear threats that influenced international relations.
History – The study of past events, particularly in human affairs. – Understanding the history of scientific discoveries helps us appreciate the progress made in technology.
Climate – The long-term patterns of temperature, humidity, wind, etc., in an area. – Climate studies have become crucial in understanding the impacts of global warming.
Change – The process through which something becomes different, often used in the context of environmental or societal shifts. – The Industrial Revolution brought about significant change in manufacturing processes and urban development.
Technology – The application of scientific knowledge for practical purposes, especially in industry. – Advances in technology have revolutionized communication and information sharing in the modern world.
Risks – The possibility of loss or injury, often assessed in scientific and economic contexts. – Scientists assess the risks of climate change to develop strategies for mitigation and adaptation.
Extinction – The state or process of a species, family, or larger group being or becoming extinct. – The extinction of the dodo bird is often cited as a classic example of human impact on biodiversity.
Intelligence – The ability to acquire and apply knowledge and skills, often discussed in the context of artificial intelligence in technology. – The development of artificial intelligence poses both opportunities and challenges for future technological advancements.
