Why are tornadoes so hard to predict?

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In this lesson, Doug explores the nature of tornadoes, emphasizing their unpredictability and the challenges faced by scientists in forecasting them. Unlike hurricanes, which can be predicted days in advance, tornadoes form rapidly and can cause destruction with little warning, often leaving only about 13 minutes for people to seek shelter. The lesson highlights ongoing efforts to improve tornado prediction using advanced technology and understanding of weather patterns, while also encouraging curiosity about other scientific questions.
  1. What are some reasons why tornadoes are hard to predict compared to hurricanes?
  2. How do scientists try to figure out when and where a tornado might form?
  3. Why is it important for people to have some warning before a tornado hits?

Understanding Tornadoes: A Fun Exploration

(Phone ringing) – Hi, it’s Doug. Making a mini-tornado like I’m doing here is so fun. But tornadoes in real life are no fun at all. I grew up in a place where tornadoes would happen every year. Luckily, no one ever got hurt, but when a tornado was spotted, the town would sound the sirens and everyone knew to take shelter.

Why Are Tornadoes Hard to Predict?

Someone named Hai Ming has a question about tornadoes. Let’s give him a call now. (Phone ringing) – Hi Doug. – Hey, Hai Ming. – I have a question for you. Why is it so hard to predict a tornado? – That’s a great question. Tornadoes are a type of extreme weather, made of powerful, swirling winds. Some tornadoes are strong enough to tear buildings apart. The most powerful tornadoes can leave behind entire towns that have been destroyed. Because of how dangerous tornadoes can be, weather forecasters try to warn people if a tornado’s going to happen. That way, everyone nearby can get somewhere safe. The more time people have before a tornado hits, the less likely they are to get hurt. So forecasters try to predict tornadoes as far ahead of time as they can.

But for most of history, the only warning you got about a tornado was if you looked outside and saw one. Today, tornado warnings have gotten a lot better, thanks to tools like radar, which help forecasters see patterns in the weather. But tornado warnings still aren’t great. Most times, people only get warned about 13 minutes ahead of time. That’s not much time at all.

Comparing Tornadoes and Hurricanes

What do you think makes it so hard to predict tornadoes ahead of time? Now would be a good time to pause the video and discuss. Okay, you ready? It might help us figure this out if we compared tornadoes with another form of extreme weather, hurricanes. Unlike tornadoes, hurricanes are pretty easy to predict. Usually, hurricane warnings give people at least two days before a hurricane hits. That’s enough time to pack up your things and get somewhere safe.

But hurricanes form very differently than tornadoes do. Hurricanes start out over the ocean, then they travel for days or even weeks before they hit the land. Scientists can easily see the clouds of a hurricane forming, so they can figure out where a hurricane is likely to hit and how strong it will be. Tornadoes aren’t like that. They form over land and quickly swoop down out of the sky to touch the ground. Tornadoes can form and start causing destruction within minutes. Scientists don’t have days or weeks to predict them like they do with hurricanes.

How Scientists Study Tornadoes

Instead, scientists look at weather maps showing big thunderstorms. Scientists put together weather images like a video to try and spot where tornadoes are forming. Did you catch the tornado here? Let’s watch again. The tornado starts right there, on the edge of the storm. It was really quick. Tornadoes are there and then they’re gone. So it’s hard to predict exactly where and when a tornado will hit.

But scientists have figured out that at the very least, they can pay attention to what weather conditions are likely to lead to tornadoes. That way, people can be on the lookout. The first thing scientists look for is a thunderstorm. But not every thunderstorm creates a tornado. Scientists check for strong winds from different directions coming together in just the right way to create a vortex, kind of like when you unplug the drain in a bathtub. The water starts to swirl and makes a vortex going down the drain. In a tornado, there’s a vortex of air, but it’s going upward, into the storm clouds above.

Future of Tornado Predictions

Today, scientists are working on better ways to predict tornadoes using computers. They hope that eventually they’ll be able to predict tornadoes up to an hour in advance, so people have more time to prepare. But tornadoes will never have as much warning time as things like hurricanes. Luckily, people in tornado zones often have basements and tornado shelters which can protect them even if a tornado comes quickly.

Summary

So in summary, scientists know that tornadoes come from big thunderstorms with strong spinning winds. But predicting exactly when and where tornadoes will hit is still really difficult. That’s all for this week’s question. Thanks, Hai Ming, for asking it.

Now for the next episode, I reached into my question jar and found three questions submitted to me that I’m thinking about answering. When this video’s done playing, you’ll get to vote on one. You can choose from “How hot is the center of the Earth?”, “Why do people get carsick?”, or “How do you make Mystery Doug?” So submit your vote when the video’s over. I want to hear from all of you watching. There are mysteries all around us. Stay curious, and see you next week.

  1. Have you ever seen a tornado in real life or in a movie? What did it look like, and how did it make you feel?
  2. Why do you think it’s important for scientists to predict tornadoes? How do you think people can stay safe if they know a tornado is coming?
  3. Imagine you are a weather scientist. What tools or ideas would you use to try and predict when a tornado might happen?
  1. Create Your Own Mini Tornado: Gather a clear plastic bottle, water, dish soap, and glitter. Fill the bottle with water, add a few drops of dish soap, and sprinkle in some glitter. Seal the bottle tightly and swirl it in a circular motion. Watch as a mini tornado forms inside the bottle! Discuss with your friends or family how this mini tornado is similar to real tornadoes and what makes it different.
  2. Tornado Watch: Next time there’s a thunderstorm, safely observe the weather from inside your home. Notice the clouds, wind, and rain. Discuss with an adult how these weather conditions might be similar to those that can lead to a tornado. Remember, safety first—never go outside during a storm to observe!
  3. Weather Detective: Pretend you are a weather scientist. Look at weather maps online or in a newspaper with an adult. Try to identify areas where thunderstorms are happening. Discuss what might happen if the conditions are right for a tornado. What would you do to warn people? How would you keep them safe?

Sure! Here’s a sanitized version of the YouTube transcript:

(Phone ringing) – Hi, it’s Doug. Making a mini-tornado like I’m doing here is so fun. But tornadoes in real life are no fun at all. I grew up in a place where tornadoes would happen every year. Luckily, no one ever got hurt, but when a tornado was spotted, the town would sound the sirens and everyone knew to take shelter.

Someone named Hai Ming has a question about tornadoes. Let’s give him a call now. (Phone ringing) – Hi Doug. – Hey, Hai Ming. – I have a question for you. Why is it so hard to predict a tornado? – That’s a great question. Tornadoes are a type of extreme weather, made of powerful, swirling winds. Some tornadoes are strong enough to tear buildings apart. The most powerful tornadoes can leave behind entire towns that have been destroyed. Because of how dangerous tornadoes can be, weather forecasters try to warn people if a tornado’s going to happen. That way, everyone nearby can get somewhere safe. The more time people have before a tornado hits, the less likely they are to get hurt. So forecasters try to predict tornadoes as far ahead of time as they can.

But for most of history, the only warning you got about a tornado was if you looked outside and saw one. Today, tornado warnings have gotten a lot better, thanks to tools like radar, which help forecasters see patterns in the weather. But tornado warnings still aren’t great. Most times, people only get warned about 13 minutes ahead of time. That’s not much time at all.

What do you think makes it so hard to predict tornadoes ahead of time? Now would be a good time to pause the video and discuss. Okay, you ready? It might help us figure this out if we compared tornadoes with another form of extreme weather, hurricanes. Unlike tornadoes, hurricanes are pretty easy to predict. Usually, hurricane warnings give people at least two days before a hurricane hits. That’s enough time to pack up your things and get somewhere safe.

But hurricanes form very differently than tornadoes do. Hurricanes start out over the ocean, then they travel for days or even weeks before they hit the land. Scientists can easily see the clouds of a hurricane forming, so they can figure out where a hurricane is likely to hit and how strong it will be. Tornadoes aren’t like that. They form over land and quickly swoop down out of the sky to touch the ground. Tornadoes can form and start causing destruction within minutes. Scientists don’t have days or weeks to predict them like they do with hurricanes.

Instead, scientists look at weather maps showing big thunderstorms. Scientists put together weather images like a video to try and spot where tornadoes are forming. Did you catch the tornado here? Let’s watch again. The tornado starts right there, on the edge of the storm. It was really quick. Tornadoes are there and then they’re gone. So it’s hard to predict exactly where and when a tornado will hit.

But scientists have figured out that at the very least, they can pay attention to what weather conditions are likely to lead to tornadoes. That way, people can be on the lookout. The first thing scientists look for is a thunderstorm. But not every thunderstorm creates a tornado. Scientists check for strong winds from different directions coming together in just the right way to create a vortex, kind of like when you unplug the drain in a bathtub. The water starts to swirl and makes a vortex going down the drain. In a tornado, there’s a vortex of air, but it’s going upward, into the storm clouds above.

Today, scientists are working on better ways to predict tornadoes using computers. They hope that eventually they’ll be able to predict tornadoes up to an hour in advance, so people have more time to prepare. But tornadoes will never have as much warning time as things like hurricanes. Luckily, people in tornado zones often have basements and tornado shelters which can protect them even if a tornado comes quickly.

So in summary, scientists know that tornadoes come from big thunderstorms with strong spinning winds. But predicting exactly when and where tornadoes will hit is still really difficult. That’s all for this week’s question. Thanks, Hai Ming, for asking it.

Now for the next episode, I reached into my question jar and found three questions submitted to me that I’m thinking about answering. When this video’s done playing, you’ll get to vote on one. You can choose from “How hot is the center of the Earth?”, “Why do people get carsick?”, or “How do you make Mystery Doug?” So submit your vote when the video’s over. I want to hear from all of you watching. There are mysteries all around us. Stay curious, and see you next week.

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