What If a Massive Asteroid Was Headed Towards Earth

**Sanitized Transcript:**

**Day One.**
It’s June 15, 2028, and NASA has to accept a simple fact: it was wrong. Back in 2004, an asteroid named Apophis was discovered by a team at Kitt Peak National Observatory in Tucson, Arizona. The name, inspired by an Egyptian myth, seemed to pose a terrible threat to the planet when it was found. NASA thought it was on a collision course with Earth, setting 2029 as the date. Further observations took place, and eventually, NASA and its Planetary Defense Office were confident enough to state that their initial assessment was incorrect. Apophis wouldn’t hit Earth; instead, it would pass just 19,800 miles above it – the first asteroid to do so in over 7,500 years. Still, NASA couldn’t be certain. That’s why it was relying on a spacecraft launched back in 2016 to track the asteroid and provide more details about its composition. The spacecraft did just that, but it also delivered some concerning news – Apophis wouldn’t pass by Earth; it was going to hit it.

**Day Two.**
NASA is scrambling. It hasn’t informed the public yet because its top scientists still need to run some calculations to confirm the impact. All NASA-supported telescopes are focused on the asteroid’s course, including the Catalina Sky Survey in Tucson and Hawaii’s Pan-STARRS1. Their job is to take as many photos of Apophis as possible to provide NASA with images that have plenty of reference points. These images, taken several minutes apart, show Apophis in motion relative to the stars and galaxies that the telescopes usually capture. Those stars and galaxies are fixed – their positions remain the same in all of the images. Using them as markers, it’s easy for NASA to track Apophis as it moves beyond them. Scientists work diligently with the new images, unsure of what happened. They had gone through this same process back in 2004, which indicated that the asteroid was going to miss. Attention had dwindled, but now something has changed Apophis’ course, and the data confirms NASA’s fears – it’s going to hit Earth.

**Day Three.**
NASA knows that the asteroid is coming. Bill Nelson, the NASA Administrator, instructs his team to provide him with details about what the planet is going to face. What does the asteroid look like? How fast is it moving? When and where will it hit Earth? The data comes back quickly. Apophis is shaped similarly to a peanut and is as wide as the Empire State Building is tall. Measuring about 1,110 feet across, it’s primarily composed of silicate materials, with some nickel and iron. As for when it will hit, NASA already knows the date – April 13, 2029. That gives Earth 300 days to prepare for the impact and, hopefully, divert Apophis. Further calculations reveal an impact location. It’s good and bad news. Apophis isn’t going to hit land; instead, it will plunge into the Atlantic Ocean at around 45,000 miles per hour – faster than anything ever produced on Earth.

**Day Four.**
Armed with his new data, Nelson calls the President of the United States. A meeting is set up, including Nelson, the president, and both men’s leading advisors. The president asks for details, and Nelson provides them. Apophis is over 1,000 feet wide and heading to Earth, set to touch down in the Atlantic, 15 miles off the coast of Florida. The president wants to know more about the consequences of the impact. First, the good news: Apophis is large, but it’s not a planet killer. It won’t represent an extinction-level event, but it will still be lethal. According to NASA’s calculations, the asteroid will strike Earth with the equivalent force of 1,000 megatons of TNT. That’s significantly more than the largest nuclear bomb ever created. The president takes solace in that until he realizes the implications – Apophis will hit just 15 miles from Florida, meaning the massive waves generated will not dissipate before they hit the coast.

**Day 20.**
NASA has its plan. On November 24, 2021, NASA, in collaboration with SpaceX, launched the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART). The goal was simple – fire a rocket at an asteroid to see if the kinetic impact generated by the collision could alter the asteroid’s course. The test was a success in relative terms. The target was a moonlet asteroid named Dimorphos, which was orbiting a parent asteroid named Didymos. NASA’s measurements indicated that Dimorphos took 11 hours and 55 minutes to orbit its parent before the strike. By the time NASA’s rocket reached it on September 26, 2022, it was traveling at 14,000 miles per hour. The rocket struck successfully, and NASA’s measurements showed that it had an impact on Dimorphos, reducing its orbital time. However, it wasn’t the sort of orbital change that NASA wanted to see in the context of a potential Earth-striking event. The goal is to send Apophis further away, not bring it closer. Still, NASA has no other options and is unsure if DART will work to change Apophis’s trajectory at all. The organization would have preferred to have several years of testing before attempting a DART launch. It has 283 days.

**Day 25.**
Musk has been informed of the situation. NASA wants to use one of his Falcon Heavy rockets to strike an asteroid that is on a collision course with Earth. He’s managed to keep the news under wraps at NASA’s insistence and has given the okay for the rocket to be launched. Why did NASA want Falcon Heavy? Musk’s rocket is capable of generating a staggering amount of thrust at liftoff and is one of Earth’s most powerful rockets. It can carry significant weight, giving it the capacity needed to impact Apophis significantly. The good news for NASA is that Musk has one of his rockets ready to go. It’ll take several days to transport the Falcon Heavy to Cape Canaveral and several more to conduct checks and prepare it for launch. After that, all that remains is to launch and hope.

**Day 40.**
Launch day. NASA and SpaceX have done this before. SpaceX crews have spent the last few days maneuvering the rocket into its launch position at the Kennedy Space Center. The math has been completed. Apophis is still 284 million miles away from Earth, but it’s traveling at 45,000 miles per hour. NASA has to calibrate Falcon Heavy’s launch trajectory carefully. It’s not as fast as Apophis, meaning the organization has to hit the point where the asteroid will be rather than launch straight at it. With Apophis moving at 10,000 miles per hour, it’s going to take days after the launch before it hits. Those are days that NASA can ill afford. Every lost day is another million miles closer to Earth, and there is less chance of Falcon Heavy diverting its target. The classic math puzzle involving two trains traveling toward each other shows precisely how many days it will take for the rocket to meet the asteroid. By that point, Apophis will have traveled around 232 million miles, leaving it just 52 million miles away from Earth. The success of the plan seems unlikely. Even when Falcon Heavy hits, NASA can’t know exactly how much of an impact it will have and whether that impact will be capable of diverting Apophis. But the launch is the only hope.

**T-Minus 10.**
Nelson, observing the launch from mission control, closes his eyes and whispers a silent prayer to himself. Sitting in the Oval Office with a direct link to mission control, the president does the same. Mission control is enveloped in a heavy silence. All it can do now is hope the launch is successful and its calculations are correct.
**One. Lift Off!** Falcon Heavy’s engines roar into life, producing immense thrust. The rocket lifts into the sky and flies upward. Mission Control checks every speck of data coming back from the craft. Everything is normal. The rocket keeps going, finally leaving Earth’s atmosphere and adjusting its trajectory to put it on course with Apophis. The launch was successful. All NASA, Musk, SpaceX, and the president can do from here is wait to see if it works. But in the meantime, the president has an important job – informing the public that an asteroid is on its way.

**Day 50.**
The president stands behind a podium in the White House Press Briefing Room, flanked by key advisors. The journalists in the room are confused, unaware of the true nature of the recent rocket launch. The president had been in intense discussions with his advisors about when to inform the public. Some argued that telling people now, with over 250 days before the asteroid hits, would lead to panic. Others believed it was better to be open and start organizing relief and evacuation efforts. The president agrees with the latter group, which is why he finds himself addressing the press. He announces that NASA’s observations revealed that the initial calculations about Apophis were incorrect and that it is currently on course to strike Earth on April 13, 2029, just 12 miles from the Florida coast. He explains the potential consequences of the impact and assures the public that a plan is in place.

**Day 51.**
The headlines are bleak and sensationalist, causing widespread panic. The president focuses on developing Florida’s evacuation plan, working closely with FEMA and Florida’s governor. Together, they devise a plan to issue rolling evacuation orders for Florida’s counties over the next 200 days. The president commits to weekly news conferences to keep the public informed. The first of those conferences happens today, where he relays the plan to the American people, emphasizing the necessity of evacuation.

**Day 52 to Day 252.**
The evacuation plans face challenges. Panic ensues, with many Floridians attempting to flee before receiving official orders. Traffic jams ensue, and the president appears on television to encourage calm and reiterate the plan. Slowly, the message begins to resonate, and most Floridians start following the instructions. However, social media complicates matters, with some questioning the existence of the asteroid and others opting to stay. The president handles inquiries from world leaders, emphasizing that the United States is in the best position to deal with the threat. By Day 252, Florida is about 95% evacuated, but there are still some who refuse to leave.

**Day 255.**
Impact day. Bill Nelson and the NASA team closely monitor the Falcon Heavy. The data streams in, and the moment arrives. Falcon Heavy hits Apophis, resulting in a massive explosion. More data comes in, and NASA will need a couple of days to analyze the new photographs to check the asteroid’s trajectory.

**Day 258.**
The data is in. NASA confirms that Apophis’s course has changed slightly, but it’s still going to hit Earth. The new impact location is Miami. This impact will be different than anticipated, with the potential to destroy Miami and create severe environmental effects. The president calls a press briefing to deliver the news, urging Florida to brace for impact.

**Day 300.**
Apophis becomes visible to the naked eye. Some Floridians refuse to leave, believing NASA is lying, while others panic and flee.

**Day 303.**
Apophis strikes Miami, creating a massive crater and unleashing devastating energy. The impact generates catastrophic winds and earthquakes, resulting in widespread destruction. The president organizes relief efforts while NASA analyzes the environmental impact of the strike.

**Day 304 and beyond.**
Miami is devastated, but the state as a whole isn’t destroyed. It will take years to rebuild, and the world is now more alert to the possibility of future asteroid threats. The reality is that Apophis is far from the largest asteroid that could strike Earth. The need for more powerful rockets and better preparation is clear.

This concludes our video on what might happen if a giant asteroid were to hit Earth. What do you think? Do you believe an asteroid could hit Earth in the near future? What actions could NASA and other space organizations take? Share your thoughts below, and check out our other videos for more information.