Why 2024 Will Be The Best Year EVER

Here’s a sanitized version of the provided YouTube transcript:

—

If you watched our show on why 2024 will be a challenging year, you’re probably still recovering from the overwhelming negativity we discussed. But never fear, dear viewers! We have the perfect remedy: our counter show that we hope will brighten your day and help you feel more optimistic about the world.

Before diving into serious topics like conflict, division, health issues, and the impact of artificial intelligence, we need to clarify something. We mentioned in our previous video that many people currently perceive a bleak future. According to our last show, 70% of Americans feel pessimistic about the future of their country. Many around the globe, based on the surveys we referenced, are also feeling down. The statistics are telling, especially with the ongoing cost of living crisis and significant political division, which explains why many might select the “negative” option on surveys. However, it’s essential to remember that humans have a natural tendency to focus on negative experiences. Research indicates that people tend to react more strongly to negative stimuli and dwell on negative events more than positive ones. So, is the world really as bad as it seems?

When this question arises, someone often points out that fewer people are living in poverty now compared to the past. And that’s true! The global poverty rate has improved significantly. The UN reported that in 2015, 10% of the world’s population lived on less than $1.90 a day, which is considered extreme poverty. However, in 2022 and 2023, the rate dropped to between 8.5% and 9%, according to the World Bank’s Poverty and Inequality Platform. While poverty levels did rise during the pandemic, when viewed in the context of human history, we are making progress.

The UN noted that the world poverty rate was 16% in 2010 and a staggering 36% in 1990. They stated, “Ending extreme poverty is within our reach,” aiming for less than 3% of the world to live on under $1.90 a day by 2030. Other statistics indicate that around 1.9 billion people, or 24% of the global population, still live in dire circumstances. Yet, there is some good news for them as well. China and India have made significant strides in reducing poverty, with both countries lifting over 1.1 billion people out of extreme poverty between 1990 and 2022. China announced in 2020 that it had eliminated extreme poverty entirely, and India is projected to have only about five million people living in extreme poverty by 2030.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, 44 countries have seen a decrease in extreme poverty since 1990, although 18 countries in the region have experienced an increase. Unfortunately, Sub-Saharan Africa is believed to account for about two-thirds of the world’s extremely poor. In the US, the relative poverty rate was 13.5% in 1990, rose to 15% in 2010 following the economic downturn, and fell to 11.5% in 2023. While this is a positive trend, it’s worth noting that the rate was 10.5% in 2019 before the pandemic and the subsequent economic challenges.

In the UK, the poverty rate was about 25% in 1990 and is now close to 20%, affecting around 13.4 million people. According to one foundation, “around six in ten…are not able to afford an unexpected expense.” While this is concerning, it’s an improvement compared to the past.

To understand the poverty threshold in the UK, it’s calculated as below 60% of the median household income after housing costs, which varies across the country. On average, for a single adult, this amounts to about £150 ($182) a week, with destitution defined as £95 ($115) a week after housing costs. As we mentioned in the previous show, the cost-of-living crisis in the UK has left many in difficult situations, but the UK is not alone. In Canada, 7.4% of the population lives below the poverty line of $25,252 ($18,000 USD) for a single-adult household annually. Reports indicate that 1.8 million Canadians live in “deep poverty,” earning less than $11,700 ($8,458 USD) a year, leaving them with around $1,000 ($782 USD) annually for essentials.

Despite these challenges, the Canadian poverty rate has improved from 14.5% in 2015 to 10.1% in 2019, and now stands at 7.4%. However, around 6.9 million Canadians are reported to experience food insecurity. While the situation is not ideal, it’s important to recognize that these improvements have occurred over time.

In Australia, approximately 3.3 million people (13.4% of the population) live below the poverty line, which is about $489 ($314 USD) a week for a single adult. In 2023, around two million Australians faced food insecurity.

Now, you might be wondering, wasn’t this supposed to be a show about the positive aspects of the world in 2024? Yes, it is! What we’re emphasizing is that, overall, poverty has generally improved over the last few decades. While times are tough with ongoing conflicts and the aftermath of the pandemic, we have made significant progress compared to the past, especially when looking back 50 or 100 years.

We understand that under current conditions, our message might not seem uplifting. However, we want to highlight that nothing extraordinary is happening, and it serves as a good starting point for discussing the many positive developments in the world.

In our previous show, we discussed artificial intelligence, focusing on some of its more concerning aspects. We were primarily addressing the rise of generative AI, which utilizes deep-learning models to create content that resembles human production. You might wonder if AI could ever invent a word as unique as “ducksquaglemoobosh.” We think not!

Studies indicate that about 25% of jobs in the US are at risk of automation due to various forms of AI, not just generative AI. Additionally, it’s estimated that 36% of US jobs are at medium risk of being automated soon. These predictions vary depending on the source, but it’s clear that tens of millions of jobs may soon be performed by machines.

While this sounds alarming, AI is also generating numerous job opportunities. For instance, in 2023, the remote job site Upwork reported a 1,000% increase in job postings related to AI. Overall, jobs on Upwork increased by 230%, with AI being the fastest-growing sector.

The prevailing theory is that AI will create nearly as many jobs as it displaces, and the good news for workers is that many of the most mundane, dangerous, and repetitive tasks will be handled by machines. Let’s be honest; few people enjoy performing monotonous tasks for hours on end. Most would prefer engaging in more creative and intellectually stimulating work.

While there are memes suggesting that AI is taking away all the desirable jobs, it’s still far from being able to create an album as remarkable as Radiohead’s “OK Computer,” which explores themes of social disconnection in a technology-driven society. Creative professionals, we believe, are safe for now.

There’s a growing demand for machine data scientists, machine learning engineers, and specialized researchers in AI. Additionally, we will need individuals to oversee AI systems, ensuring their accuracy and security. As AI processes vast amounts of health data, health data analysts will be essential in interpreting the findings.

Recently, the UK’s NewsQuest group announced it was seeking an “AI-powered reporter” to utilize AI while ensuring its accuracy and ethical standards. While the pay was modest at around $27,000 a year, it highlights the need for human oversight in AI-generated content.

If you educate yourself about AI, the future appears promising. When we began this show, Netflix was searching for a product manager for its “machine-learning platform,” offering a salary between $300,000 and $900,000 a year. That’s quite an attractive opportunity!

We found over 28,000 AI-related jobs listed on the Indeed job website in the US. The top position was for a “Writer/Editor: AI Training Projects,” which stated: “If you’re a professional who works with text, we have an exciting opportunity to use your writing, editing, technical, and creative skills in a new and innovative way. Instead of fearing that AI will replace you, here you can help shape its future.”

While it may seem like we’re promoting this job because it aligns with our show’s theme, we assure you it was the top listing. Like many jobs today, it was remote and freelance, which means you might miss out on benefits and insurance, but the flexibility suits certain individuals.

AI, like past technological advancements, will disrupt the labor market, but we doubt that a significant portion of the workforce will suddenly become unemployed. Looking back, the US unemployment rate was 6.8% in 1991, dropped to 5% in 1997, and fell to 4% in 2000. It rose to 9.7% in 2010 but decreased to 3.8% in 2018. According to the US Department of Commerce, the unemployment rate was down to 3.4% in 2023, the lowest in 54 years, despite millions of jobs being automated over the past two decades, particularly in industrial sectors.

While many Americans lost jobs to automation, we found ways to employ those individuals. It’s estimated that around 60% of workers today are in occupations that didn’t even exist in the 1940s. A Goldman Sachs report in 2023 predicted that AI could replace about 300 million jobs in the US and Europe, but it also suggested that AI could increase the annual value of goods and services by 7%. Most researchers view AI as a significant advancement, and the UK government shares this perspective, stating in 2023 that AI will “ultimately drive productivity across the economy.”

So, to our British viewers, before you consider taking drastic actions against technology like the Luddites did in the 19th century, remember that new job opportunities are on the horizon. The UK is among the world leaders in AI development, often ranked just behind China and the US, although Singapore and Switzerland are also contenders.

There will be disruptions and challenges ahead, but if experts are correct, AI will provide as much as it takes. If we consider the alternative, if a large portion of the population were to become unemployed, it’s unlikely that governments would allow people to go hungry or lack shelter. Many of you may agree, but we believe this scenario is improbable in today’s world.

At worst, some experts suggest that mass unemployment due to technological displacement could lead to the implementation of a universal basic income. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, recently mentioned that “Artificial intelligence will create so much wealth that every adult in the United States could be paid $13,500 per year from its windfall as soon as 10 years from now.”

If this holds true, governments might consider providing cash assistance in the form of a universal basic income. If a significant portion of the population were to become impoverished while the wealthy continued to accumulate wealth, we could expect widespread protests. However, we don’t foresee reaching that point in the 21st century.

In this show, we won’t dwell on the anticipated recession. We’ll simply note that as 2023 progressed, an increasing number of financial experts suggested that a recession could be avoided. For instance, economist Michael Gapen stated, “Our revisions imply we no longer expect a mild recession and, instead, think the economy may be able to skirt one.” Many experts share this optimistic outlook.

Unfortunately, we cannot ignore the ongoing conflict. The war in Ukraine shows no signs of ending soon. While Ukraine has achieved some successes recently, Russia has fortified its position, with President Putin allocating record amounts to defense. In 2023, Russia’s unemployment rate reached a record low of 3.3%, which complicates efforts to resolve the conflict.

Could there be a diplomatic resolution in 2024? In August, the US, China, and numerous other nations convened in Saudi Arabia to discuss Ukraine’s 10-point peace plan. However, this plan would likely require a “total, humiliating defeat” for Putin, which he is unlikely to accept. Russia continues to invest heavily in the war, while Western nations support Ukraine’s military efforts. It appears that this conflict will persist for many months.

This is concerning, especially given the Economics Observatory’s statement in 2023: “The longer the war continues, the deeper the economic crisis becomes.” The upcoming elections in 2024, including in the US and the EU, could influence the war’s trajectory. While Ukraine will pursue its objectives, global diplomacy in 2024 may help pave the way for a resolution.

As CNN noted in 2023, “US and Western officials fear Putin is unlikely to change course in Ukraine before the 2024 election.” The Hill suggests that “The US election may well decide the fate of Ukraine, Taiwan, and the rules-based international order.” Many media outlets believe that Putin is hoping for a Trump victory, as former US ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul stated in August, “Putin is waiting for the outcome of the U.S. 2024 presidential election. If Mr. Trump is reelected, Putin has reason to believe that he could strike a much better deal on Ukraine.”

For the sake of positivity, let’s consider the possibility that the war might come to an end in 2024, and hopefully, the economic turmoil it has caused will begin to subside. A writer for Politico outlined a potential scenario: Ukraine could launch a major offensive in 2024, then pause to focus on defense and rebuilding. When NATO convenes in Washington in August, Ukraine could become a member. President Biden has indicated that he prefers Ukraine to join NATO after the war to avoid direct US involvement, which could escalate into a global conflict.

However, as the pundit pointed out, the US could establish a defensive pact without taking offensive action. Joining NATO would be a significant achievement for Ukraine, allowing it to focus on diplomatic strategies to regain territory without resorting to military action.

This scenario would likely be unfavorable for Putin, as Ukraine would be firmly aligned with the West, which has historically been a concern for Russia. However, if Ukraine is part of NATO, what options would Putin have? The pundit explained that while Russian forces could attempt to go on the offensive, the futility of attacking fortified Ukrainian positions backed by NATO would serve as a strong deterrent.

In this scenario, Ukraine would not concede territory to Russia and would continue to seek reunification based on its 1991 borders. Other NATO members would not pressure Ukraine to cede territory either. While this situation is risky and could potentially lead to a global conflict, would Putin truly challenge NATO? If he were guaranteed peace, would he accept that arrangement? After all, Russia desires stable, non-aggressive neighbors.

Let’s hope for a peaceful resolution in 2024. Regardless of what happens in Ukraine, it won’t change the fact that Americans are experiencing declining life expectancy. We believe a change is on the horizon, which we anticipate will occur soon.

In our previous show, we discussed health issues, particularly the concerning trend of younger people dying in the US. While life expectancy in the UK hasn’t declined like in the US, improvements have slowed across all demographics. In 2024, we predict significant advancements that will lead to better health for Americans and many others around the world.

There are various reasons for the mortality crisis in the US, and while the details are still being analyzed, the statistics are clear. Americans are dying younger despite medical advancements and improved living standards. This trend affects all demographics, but the most vulnerable populations have been hit hardest.

In the UK, troubling data has emerged as well. The Office for National Statistics reported in 2022 that “In 2018 to 2020, male healthy life expectancy (HLE) at birth in the most deprived areas was 52.3 years, compared with 70.5 years in the least deprived areas.” For females, the HLE at birth in the most deprived areas was 51.9 years, nearly 20 years less than those in the least deprived areas (70.7 years).

In the US, studies indicate that the average life expectancy gap between the wealthy and the poor is around 15 years, with some studies suggesting it exceeds 20 years. This issue has been ongoing, but the conversation around early mortality gained significant attention in 2023.

Additionally, many regions in Europe and Australia reported concerning trends of excess deaths across all age groups, particularly among the young. Time magazine highlighted that the US experienced the worst decline in life expectancy since 1921 to 1923, attributing it to various factors, including access to healthcare, environmental hazards, and unhealthy diets.

The food we consume plays a significant role in this crisis. Increasingly, experts are pointing to ultra-processed foods as a major contributor to health issues. In the UK, ultra-processed foods account for a staggering 50.7% of the diet, the highest rate in Europe. The UK also has the highest obesity rate in Europe, with one in four people classified as obese.

The rates of obesity have risen more rapidly in the UK than in any other European country, according to the OECD, but the US surpasses the UK in this regard. The Harvard School of Public Health reports that one in three Americans is obese. Globally, there are now 500 million obese individuals, with 10% of men and 14% of women classified as such. This rate has doubled since 1980, and the trend continues to rise in many nations.

It’s estimated that 60% of the average American diet consists of ultra-processed foods. For adolescents, it’s reported that 67% of their caloric intake comes from ultra-processed sources. Avoiding these foods is challenging, especially since 73% of the US food supply is ultra-processed.

In parts of Asia, traditional diets are increasingly being replaced by ultra-processed options. Thailand, for example, has seen a significant transformation, with obesity rates rising dramatically in the last two decades. The Department of Health in Thailand reported that the prevalence of overweight and obesity among adults reached 47.8% in 2022, a substantial increase from 34.75% in 2016.

This shift towards ultra-processed foods is evident globally, and health experts warn that poor dietary choices are as harmful as smoking. However, there is hope. Just as society recognized the dangers of tobacco in the 1990s, we believe a similar awakening regarding ultra-processed foods is imminent.

In 2024, we anticipate increased pressure on politicians to address the growing health crisis associated with ultra-processed foods. More health experts are asserting that an ultra-processed diet poses greater risks than smoking. A prominent scientist recently stated that a healthy diet could prevent 60% of diseases.

Research has linked ultra-processed foods to various health issues, including cancer, heart disease, and diabetes. The New York