Why China is Terrified of US New Manta Ray Submarine

Here’s a sanitized version of the provided YouTube transcript:

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It’s so quiet that even regular marine life mistakes it for just one of its own. Yet the American-built underwater drone is large enough to deter any curious predators, which give it a wide berth. This unique vehicle is about the size of a small commercial fishing vessel, but when seen from above, it resembles a giant manta ray cruising the world’s oceans. It has no propellers, and the only visible feature that marks the underwater vehicle as artificial to a casual observer is the large fin that sticks up in the back like an aircraft tail. It’s a predator unlike anything else in the ocean. The same silencing technology that makes American submarines exceptionally quiet has gone into its construction, though it’s designed to be expendable. This makes it perfect for penetrating deep into dangerous waters and carrying out high-risk missions.

This artificial fish is currently on the hunt for prey. The vehicle features both passive and active sonar but is currently cruising along at several knots using only its passive sonar and a host of highly classified sensors—all tuned into catching one of the biggest fish in the ocean: a Chinese attack submarine. And when it finds one, this predator is ready to strike.

Up above the waves, the US manned fleet is stretched thin, trying to cover millions of square miles of ocean to keep Chinese submarines away from shipping routes or even friendly ports back home. Only able to bring a portion of its total navy to the fight in the Pacific, the United States has been working on a backup plan for years—the Ghost Fleet. This fleet of unmanned vehicles numbers over 100 semi or completely autonomous vessels, from surface combatants to mobile missile batteries. They are capable of backing up everything from manned warships to underwater hunters tasked with locating, tracking, and sometimes even destroying vessels both above and below the surface.

The artificial intelligence-powered manta ray runs all of its sensory data against a library of known signatures from Chinese vessels until, finally, there’s a match. The big underwater drone banks silently and accelerates towards its target—yet even at top speed, it barely emits a whisper as it glides through the water. Nature has spent millions of years achieving aquatic perfection, and the Americans have studied and emulated the natural movement and design of manta rays for their sub-hunting drone.

The Chinese submarine is busy listening for potential threats with a delicate suite of electronic warfare equipment specifically designed to detect enemy drones. However, the artificial manta ray gives off almost no electronic emissions; onboard AI handles all the decisions a human operator would normally make. The vehicle is designed to engage known threats automatically but only if it has a confidence rate of above 98%. If it’s in any way in doubt about its target, the big drone will silently rise to the surface and extend a satellite antenna to send a microburst transmission to an orbiting satellite, relaying its location and the location of the tracked hostile. From there, a human operator will make a decision on what to do next—the drone can either follow the hostile or directly engage it.

This time, though, the AI is confident about its target. The Chinese submarine has unique acoustic signatures, and the drone is now in proximity to detect it with enough fidelity that it can even identify the exact submarine it’s currently hunting. The AI selects a torpedo from its belly-mounted weapons bay, and a few seconds later, the weapon is silently released into the water. A second after that, the torpedo’s battery brings its propulsion to life, and the weapon is en route to its target. There’s no need to hide anymore, and both the drone and torpedo turn on their active sonar. The Chinese boat is immediately alerted, then realizes just how close the American drone is. The confirmation of a torpedo in the water sends a chill down the captain’s spine—there’s little hope of evading such a close-range shot, but the submarine immediately ejects countermeasures. Noisemakers are released into the water, creating an attractive sonar signature for both the drone and torpedo.

The torpedo is lured towards a noisemaker by the sonar return, but the drone’s artificial intelligence has identified the sudden spike in noise as countermeasures. It’s still linked to the torpedo with a long fiber optic cable that spools out behind the torpedo as it travels through the water, relaying commands to correct its course and ignore the countermeasures. The Chinese captain’s face goes pale; there’s nothing he can do now but order the boat to perform an emergency surfacing. Hopefully, they will be near enough to the surface when the torpedo strikes that most of the crew can escape the submarine.

The preceding is a potential scenario where America’s new sub-hunting drone could be used in case of conflict in the Pacific. While many nations are pursuing drone programs for various applications, the United States has identified a need for a massive expansion of naval drones as a priority to ensure stability in the South Pacific. This comes as a result of China’s increasingly assertive foreign policy in the South China Sea and neighboring waters, with the nation seeking access to rich energy and fish resources.

The situation is so tense that even Vietnam has allied with the United States in an attempt to counter China’s aggression on the high seas. Earlier this year, the Chinese navy wounded several Filipino sailors as they attempted to resupply troops stationed on a shoal within the Philippines’ territorial waters claimed by China. This has prompted many to wonder where the red line is that will lead to open conflict. Last year, a Chinese destroyer approached an Australian military vessel whose propeller had been fouled by discarded fishing nets. The Australian captain alerted the Chinese ship that he had divers in the water, as is normal procedure. Rather than offer assistance, the Chinese captain ordered his ship’s sonar to be briefly run at full power, injuring the Australian divers.

With ever-mounting tensions regarding Taiwan, conflict with China seems increasingly likely. However, if the US is to face off against China, it needs to make up for its lack of numbers. Currently, the Chinese navy outnumbers the Americans, but most Chinese ships are not suited for open-water operations. Despite their superior numbers, US ships are still better equipped and bring more missiles to the fight—but China is slowly closing that gap. To make matters worse, the US Navy has global commitments it can’t abandon, and thus, it can only bring a portion of its full strength into a fight with China.

This is where the Ghost Fleet and DARPA’s new Manta Ray drone come into play. The US is looking to add approximately 100 large unmanned platforms to its navy, mirroring a similar push by the US Army and Marines, which are looking to acquire thousands of drones within the next two years. The Air Force was already planning to integrate drones into its future air fleets, with the collaborative combat aircraft concept being in development for years alongside the Next Generation Air Dominance fighter. This sixth-generation fighter will act as a mothership for a small fleet of expendable drones, which can perform more dangerous tasks that the manned fighter would be at too great a risk for.

The Navy’s approach to drone warfare mirrors the Air Force’s in that it’s acquiring larger drones equipped with advanced artificial intelligence that will allow them to act either semi-autonomously or fully autonomously. This Ghost Fleet will supplement the manned fleet, leveling the playing field against superior Chinese numbers and allowing the navy to send drones into waters too dangerous for manned ships. One key area in which naval drones will excel is where America’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency has been focusing many of its efforts: anti-submarine warfare.

With the threat of submarines breaking out into the Atlantic and disrupting US reinforcements, the US placed a major emphasis on anti-submarine warfare during the Cold War, becoming an expert in identifying, tracking, and hunting down these elusive assets. However, after the fall of the Soviet Union and with no major competitors on the horizon, the US’s anti-submarine warfare capabilities diminished, prompting the US to ‘borrow’ a Swedish submarine and its crew for an extended training regimen meant to restore the Navy’s proficiency.

But the ocean is vast, and anti-submarine warfare can be very tedious. This is where DARPA’s Manta Ray comes into play. This stealthy drone is designed to detect enemy submarines, though it’s capable of tracking and identifying other threats as well. The path to the creation of the Manta Ray began back in 2020 when DARPA awarded contracts to defense contractors to develop a new type of drone. DARPA specified that it wanted an autonomous underwater vehicle able to operate independently, harvest its own energy, and complete a variety of missions autonomously. A year later, one contractor dropped out, and DARPA awarded contracts to develop a full-scale technology demonstrator.

In September 2023, testing began on a smaller-scale prototype to verify the effectiveness of its sensor suite and its ability to carry out autonomous tasks without human guidance. However, another contractor unveiled a full-scale technology demonstrator ready for open-water trials. Dubbed the Manta Ray, the drone utilizes a sea-glider shape that makes it look like a stealth bomber. The drone has been touted as being highly modular, which means that it’s easy to transport and assemble once on location. This is important to the Navy, as it allows for quick deployment and saves valuable pier space.

The Manta Ray features something extraordinary for any drone. A key requirement from the Navy was full autonomy for the drone. The Navy didn’t want a drone that would add more workload for its sailors or require additional personnel to operate it. This is where artificial intelligence comes into play, allowing the drone to work alongside other vessels independently. But that’s not all the autonomy that the Navy wanted; the drone has to be completely self-sufficient as well.

It’s the ultimate fire-and-forget weapon, with the Manta Ray featuring the ability to generate its own electricity, removing it from complicated logistics chains. This is a significant advantage for the Navy, as it would otherwise face the prospect of setting up refueling capabilities for drones that could be operating across vast distances. DARPA placed a premium on energy management when designing the Manta Ray. A requirement for extreme duration and independence means that a premium was placed on how the drone uses its onboard energy reserves, prompting the use of new techniques to minimize energy consumption while operational.

The drone’s unique manta ray shape helps it achieve this reduction in energy consumption, allowing it to glide through the water using a fraction of the power current drones use. But the drone also needs to generate its own electricity, which might be the most novel piece of technology onboard. Currently, underwater drones are either tethered to a surface ship for power or need to be supported by a ship that can provide refueling as necessary. With the most long-duration drones currently having an operational range of only a few days, this is logistically challenging—especially if the Manta Ray and its siblings are meant to travel far and wide in pursuit of hostile submarines.

To make matters worse, today’s underwater drones have high power draws—mostly from their propulsion systems—before considering sensors or payloads. This limits their endurance and places a greater logistical burden on the Navy. The Air Force doesn’t have this problem thanks to its drones’ ability to range widely or use efficient means of propulsion to stay aloft for days. The Navy is thus looking to replicate and surpass the success of airborne drones by engineering them to draw energy directly from the ocean.

Currently, details on the Manta Ray remain classified, but one suspected method of generating electricity underwater without human assistance is through ocean currents. The drone is envisioned to drop down to the sea floor and anchor itself in place. It can then deploy a device to capture the energy of ocean currents and convert it into an electrical charge. A similar method is already in use generating power around the world, so the concept is proven to work at large scale. The question is, can it work underwater and on a smaller scale?

Another possible way of producing energy is known as salinity gradient power, which utilizes a stack of alternating membranes filled with freshwater and seawater. The difference in salinity generates electricity that can be captured and stored by the drone. A third proposition is to create underwater refueling stations for a fleet of drones. These stations would generate power by harnessing the energy produced by the mixing of warm and cooler currents underwater. Permanently anchored to the sea floor, the Navy could deploy dozens or even hundreds of these stations where its fleet of unmanned drones could regularly return to recharge.

A major obstacle to deploying the Manta Ray and similar drones is the challenge of long-range communications with submerged vehicles. Due to the conductivity of water, radio waves cannot travel far below the surface, which is why American submarines utilize Very Low Frequency communication systems. The Manta Ray could be equipped with a VLF antenna, but that still limits its ability to communicate due to the low bandwidth. This is why autonomy is crucial—the Manta Ray cannot receive detailed instructions while deployed deep underwater.

One solution is to equip the Manta Ray with a deployable antenna that can rise to the surface and connect to orbiting satellites. Many submarines currently utilize such a system for high bandwidth communications, though it comes with significant risk. Another solution involves “expendable data bubbles,” which the Manta Ray could release. These devices would float to the surface and transmit information gathered by the drone, but this communication would be one-way, making artificial intelligence key to the entire concept.

With both Russia and China fielding new submarines, the need for a dramatic expansion in anti-submarine warfare is pressing—and the Manta Ray, along with a family of similar drones, could be the answer. These autonomous drones—capable of generating their own power—could provide the edge the US Navy needs to deter any potential conflict that could have global repercussions. However, if such a conflict arises, America’s underwater drones will be ready.

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